Unites States’ Strategy and Zawahri’s Dead

After the killing of Zawahiri, the debates on America’s role in Afghanistan have heated up as the headlines of the news and talks once again.

This event has pitted two theories against each other: firstly, an optimistic theory that says that the United States’ patience with the Taliban has ended and that the country’s strategy has changed to overthrow this group, and secondly, a theory that says that this attack was carried out in coordination with the Taliban. And the beginning of a process of cooperation between this group and the United States is to build trust so that the ground for the recognition of the Taliban government is enabled to let Afghanistan suffer under the control of a terrorist group for a longer time as long as the group plays effectively its role in favor of the United States.

Conspiracy theorists believe that the United States, disillusioned with the previous government, decided to replace it with the Taliban in order to put pressure on Iran, Central Asia, and China. According to them, the Taliban’s help in killing Ayman Zawahiri was done in this direction. In this way, America’s footprints in fielding terrorist groups in this region and the Taliban’s alignment with America are hidden, with the help of this group, a big pit will be dug for America’s rivals in the region.

Those who view at this attack optimistically, analyze Zawahiri’s murder as a sign of a fundamental turnaround in America’s policies, they believe that America will never forget 20 years of enmity with the Taliban and Pakistan, and although the continuation of the war will increase the cost of America’s presence and then the withdrawal of the forces of that country ended, but the issue of revenge and even the fall of the Taliban has not been ruled out. According to them, the killing of Zawahiri has two messages to the Taliban leaders that America is aware of all your relations and contacts with the terrorist groups and can eliminate anyone from the scene at any time and anywhere like the same way as did with Zawahiri.

Despite the existence of objective evidence to confirm each of these two views, it does not seem that analyzing this story in black and white helps to fully understand it. The big countries of the world, especially the United States, are aware of various variables in the field of politics and in most cases put the principle on flexibility and prepare for each one by predicting and analyzing several scenarios. The existence of a democratic, stable government allied with the US in Afghanistan is undoubtedly one of the best scenarios, but when external variables do not allow such an option, one can prepare for the worst scenario: an alliance with the government of a terrorist group to achieve higher goals, which might  not be morally correct, but as long as it is aligned with the pragmatism common in today’s world politics and is economical gain, it is OK to implement the project.

If we consider the recent developments in terms of separating tactics and strategy, we can see the case in this way: the Taliban had promised America that they would fully cooperate with this country, but due to distrust, they allowed the activities of international terrorist groups to put pressure on America and other countries. America’s strategy is to make the Taliban its committed ally, but it is unhappy with the continued friendship of this group with China, Russia and Iran. The killing of Zawahiri can remind this group of the Taliban’s vulnerability and be a pressure to end their honeymoon with America’s rivals. Another scenario could also be involved: if the Taliban does not reconsider its relations with the American rivals, the groups opposed to the Taliban can be brought back to the scene; provided that they overcome their harmful dispersions; Dispersion and division that caused their defeat and the victory of the Taliban.